| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | W | Abilene Christian | 33-10 | 1789.6 | -20.5 | 1769.2 | 97.9% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | W | Oregon State | 35-24 | 1769.2 | +16.2 | 1785.4 | 92.6% |
| 3 | Sep 19 2026 | W | Houston | 28-26 | 1785.4 | -9.6 | 1775.8 | 58.8% |
| 4 | Sep 26 2026 | W | Sam Houston | 49-14 | 1775.8 | +19.5 | 1795.3 | 94.5% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Colorado | 29-7 | 1795.3 | +4.4 | 1799.7 | 87.6% |