| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | W | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | 67-7 | 1774.7 | +49.0 | 1823.7 | 99.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | W | Kent State | 62-14 | 1823.7 | +26.3 | 1850.0 | 98.5% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Oregon State | 45-14 | 1850.0 | +37.6 | 1887.6 | 90.1% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Utah | 34-10 | 1887.6 | +65.2 | 1952.8 | 46.6% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | W | Houston | 35-11 | 1963.2 | +33.7 | 1996.9 | 75.6% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | W | Kansas | 42-17 | 1996.9 | +41.7 | 2038.6 | 70.3% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | L | Arizona State | 22-26 | 2038.6 | -33.2 | 2005.4 | 81.3% |
| 10 | Oct 25 2025 | W | Oklahoma State | 42-0 | 2005.4 | +9.5 | 2014.9 | 97.6% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Kansas State | 43-20 | 2014.9 | +31.6 | 2046.5 | 71.5% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | BYU | 29-7 | 2046.5 | +21.5 | 2068.0 | 59.3% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | W | UCF | 48-9 | 2068.0 | +29.2 | 2097.2 | 87.3% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | West Virginia | 49-0 | 2091.4 | +38.7 | 2130.1 | 93.2% |
| 16 | Dec 6 2025 | W | BYU | 34-7 | 2130.1 | +23.4 | 2153.5 | 68.4% |
| 20 | Jan 1 2026 | L | Oregon | 0-23 | 2142.0 | -45.8 | 2096.2 | 49.7% |